Well friends here we are, into our
annual stint on the prime-time hurricane hot seat, that
short six-week or so period of the total six-month
season where we see more named storms develop than
during the rest of the season combined. While we cannot
over-emphasize the importance of being adequately
prepared for the season, it is equally important to not
get caught up in the "hurricane hype" (as
I like to refer to it) that seems to permeate the
airways each year by individuals with agendas that
sometimes border more on the sensational than the
logical.
As an example of this, I refer you to
the practice of issuing these largely worthless
forecasts for the exact total number
of named storms that will develop. The reason I say
"largely worthless" is not only because of the odds
against hitting it right on the nose, but because it is
not the number of storms that
develop that is important. It is where
these things eventually end up going that counts. For
example, in 2005 the original prediction was for 13
named storms, yet we ended up with an unprecedented 28!
However, out of those 28 storms, it was two (Katrina and
Rita) in particular that everyone will remember, because
it was those two that did the most damage, and of course
in the case of Rita, scored a direct hit on our area.
Then the very next year they predicted 17 and we ended
up with only 9. So again I will repeat what I have
always said….It takes only one
storm to make for a very bad season, if that one storm
makes a direct hit on our area. My advice is to prepare
for each and every hurricane season as if this
were the year our number was coming up, because you will
not get a clue from these dubious full season forecasts.
I strongly recommend that you make a
special effort to obtain a copy of our full-color
tracking chart for a most comprehensive review of
everything you need to know in order to prepare for
these storms. You can find them at any one of the
numerous branches of Cameron State Bank, located across
the listening area, or at the KYKZ-96 studios.
I have included a few graphics here
to make the visual understanding of the various stages
of hurricane development easier to comprehend. The first
stage is referred to as a "tropical wave,"
because as you can see on the chart, this is basically
what it looks like when isobars (pressure strength
lines) are applied to it. I have included arrows
indicating the wind-flow within a wave. As you can see,
the winds follow the pressure pattern, turning slightly
inward towards the area of lowest pressure, but not
completing a closed circulation (no west wind around the
south side of the system). It looks a whole lot like any
other low pressure trough you might see on the weather
map, except for the fact that this one is deriving its
primary energy off of the warm water temperature.
Tropical waves are a common
everyday phenomenon in the tropics, and we
should expect less than 10% of the over 100 that form in
an average year
to go on and become full-blown
storms. If a healthy tropical wave approaches our area
from the east or southeast, east to northeast winds will
precede it (see red arrows on chart), and then as the
wave goes by, the majority of the rain will typically
fall along and to the east of its axis, as winds come
around to the southeast. Tropical waves can
be troublemakers if they stall over an area and produce
long training bands of thunderstorms, resulting in
flooding. However, most simply enhance and organize our
already present daily summer thunderstorm coverage as
they go by.
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If a tropical wave should happen to
come under the center of an area of weak high pressure
aloft, where the winds upstairs are
diverging away from the center, then the
thunderstorms building up within the wave will have an
exit exhaust chimney aloft for the air in the top of the
storms to move away from the wave, making way for new
fresh air entering the wave at the bottom to lift up
much faster. The faster the air lifts up at the bottom,
the lower the pressure falls, and the lower the pressure
falls, the faster new air coming towards the wave moves
in. Once this is happening all the way around the wave,
air begins to flow in from all directions as a common "closed
off" area of low pressure develops, and the
system receives its classification as a "tropical
depression".
The basic trick to any further
development requires that the upper level part of
the system be moving along exactly in tandem with the
lower part. If the wave outruns its support aloft,
or the other way around, the winds aloft will begin to
sheer off the precisely organized vertical shaft of
rising air currents, and further development will be
prevented, and the system may even dissipate, depending
upon the severity of the sheer. This is the main reason
why you do not see more tropical waves go on to become
hurricanes (thank goodness). It takes a very exacting
balance of conditions from the surface all the way up,
acting in precise coordination with each other to pull
off developing into a hurricane.
Tropical depressions can
be big troublemakers, as many in the past here have come
up into our area and stalled out, dumping drenching
torrential flood producing rains on us. A tropical
depression stalling out just south of Sabine Pass could
set the stage for a very serious flood event here, with
our area being on its wetter east side, and just far
enough offshore not to be killed off by the landmass.
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If all goes well for the depression
and development continues until the circular winds
around the center reach 39 mph, it graduates to "tropical
storm" status and receives its name. The lower
the pressure drops in the middle of the system, the
faster the winds outside the system will rush in to try
and equalize that pressure. Although tropical storm
force winds can be a problem, primarily with tree damage
and power outages, our past history here with tropical
storms has definitely been biased more towards excessive
heavy rainfall events. In fact, some of our all-time
heaviest rains and resultant floods have come under the
auspices of tropical storms. Tidal flooding along the
coast has also proven to be a problem.
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Once a tropical storm crosses that 74
mph threshold and becomes classified as a "hurricane,"
it has a chance to go down in history along with the
Audreys, Andrews, Carlas, Camilles, and now Katrinas and
Ritas of the past (although these super-storm names have
been retired to the hall of fame and will never be used
again). What happens here locally depends just as much
upon the trajectory of the storm as it does its size and
strength. Let's deal with size and strength first.
While everyone here in our area
naturally makes comparisons to Audrey and Rita, it is
wise to consider that a direct hit from a storm such as
the gigantic Carla from 1961 or the category 5 Camille
with gusts over 200 mph from 1969, or even worse yet,
1988's Gilbert, possessing both the tremendous size of
Carla and strength of Camille at
his height in the Caribbean, would reduce this whole
area (not just Cameron) to a pile of rubbish. Gilbert
still holds the all-time low-pressure record for any
Atlantic hurricane at 26.13 inches of mercury. To put
this in proper perspective for you, look at your home
barometer, and chances are you will find this well below
the bottom of the scale. A storm with that size and
strength would send the storm surge far inland, even
north of I-10, and major hurricane force winds much
further north than that. Of course, what I am giving you
here is a worst case scenario, highly unlikely to ever
happen in our lifetime. However, the point to always
remember is, although highly unlikely, it is certainly
NOT out of the realm of
possibility. It is all a matter of the roll of the dice.
Remember this: Although Rita was certainly a major
storm, it was by no means a worse case scenario.
Just as important as size and
strength is the trajectory of the storm itself. Exactly
where that eye comes inland makes all of the difference
in the world as to what kind of weather we will
experience. As my chart here shows, the NE quadrant is
the most severe side of the storm. As a hurricane
approaches us from the gulf, it usually (but not always)
comes from a generally SE direction. If this is the
case, then the first thing we here will notice will
actually be a drying NE wind, which
will lower the humidity and provide a deceptively
pleasant but hot day ahead of the storm. Because of this
sinking dry NE flow, you have to get much closer to the
center of the storm on its west side to get into
trouble than you do on its east side, where SE
winds are feeding directly off the gulf into the storm
If you will remember, this dry hot NE
breeze was exactly the weather we experienced here on
Sept 22nd, as Rita made her initial approach,
as everyone was making their escape in the great
evacuation of our area, although of course we eventually
ended up in the wet and most dangerous NE quadrant as
she made landfall.
The weather is usually more dangerous
in every respect further to the east of the eye
than it is to the west. Of course, there is no
way of knowing for sure which side of the eyewall we
will be on in many instances (where a direct hit is
forecast) because only a common minor last-minute wobble
this way or that could make all of the difference in the
world between just a nasty severe storm event, and a
total disaster. Thankfully, the true nightmare
experience is limited to just the relatively small
eyewall area of the entire storm's circulation, and many
people who brag about having been through a hurricane
never really did experience the actual central eyewall
part of the storm.
Another side-effect of a hurricane
being given more emphasis recently (and rightfully so)
is the tremendous release of torrential rain further
inland that sometimes results in loss of life and
property comparable to closer to the coast. Right here
along the I-10 corridor, we could possibly find
ourselves in the tragic position of having to deal with
both tidal flooding and river flooding.
It would be nice if everyone could
just somehow absorb the sense of total helplessness that
those who have been through the heart of a major
hurricane have felt, but unfortunately, for some reason
it is human nature not to transpose the feelings of
someone else's disaster to our own personal lives. This
is very similar to the attitude most people have towards
things like cancer and traffic accidents. You never
really deep down inside believe it will happen to you
till it does. This is why people still over-expose their
skin to the sun, despite the mountains of evidence
proving it leads to skin cancer. This is why people
still refuse to fasten their seat belts, regardless of
overwhelming statistics that show it leads to more
serious injuries and death in traffic accidents. And,
this is precisely why people procrastinate on hurricane
preparedness, thinking that this is just something that
happens to someone else. This is simply human nature,
and I guess it keeps us from going through life in a
state of paranoia.
Now that we have a direct hit from a
major hurricane under our belts, I find that there seems
to be two different attitudes prevailing around here.
People are tending to either be overly paranoid about
the prospects of possibly being hit again this year, or
they have this attitude that since we have had our
hurricane now, the odds are great that we will not have
to worry about it again this year. The truth is, the
advent of Rita neither increases nor decreases our
chances of being hit again this year. It is strictly a
roll of the dice each year. The best thing you can do is
coolly and calmly prepare for the season as if our
number were coming up again, and then don't lose any
sleep over it until something looks like it might get
close enough to threaten us.
In my next commentary I will present
a sneak preview into the upcoming fall season. As
always, thanks again for your continued support.
